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PRICE FORECASTS

In-depth knowledge of global resources and the distribution of the costs for recovery provides us a proprietary database for predicting future oil and gas price by determining the cost of incremental production required to make adequate supply.

NAGSA’s incremental cost method is unique. Modeling future oil price by conventional methods has proven highly inaccurate since price forecasting is usually done by point estimates.Such models presume the quantity of demand and the quantity supplied as functions of the price. However, there is little discretionary consumption of oil invalidating the standard demand “shift.” Current modeling allows only one probability distribution – Supply or Demand – creating a price forecast paradox.

Probabilistic price modeling remains elusive so long as the market setters remain evenly divided between macro-economic and supply side traders. The demand curve breaks down in the supply and demand model for hydrocarbons when using point estimates. The two diametric opposing forces on the demand curve are:

NAGSA IS A LEADING FORCE IN BETTER UNDERSTANDING FUTURE OIL AND GAS SUPPLY AND DEMAND BY ANALYZING INCREMENTAL SUPPLY COSTS.